By Khin Ohmar

Today marks four years since the people of Myanmar began their courageous resistance against the military’s failed Feb. 1, 2021 coup, and led a process of home-grown political transformation.

This unanticipated yet necessary people’s revolution has created unprecedented hope that over 60 years of oppressive military rule can finally and truly be dismantled so that the people of Myanmar can live in peace, security and dignity.

There can be no going back to the old status quo — the failed power-sharing arrangements with the military in Naypyitaw that preceded 2021. The recent message from the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in Langkawi, Malaysia, is a step in the right direction toward alignment with the aspirations of the people of Myanmar.

“We told [Myanmar] the election is not a priority,” stated the Malaysian Foreign Minister, Mohamad Hasan. “The priority now is to cease fire.”

However, neither elections nor ceasefires alone will bring about lasting peace and stability in Myanmar at this critical juncture.

Over the past year, ethnic and democratic resistance forces have secured significant territorial gains throughout the country. According to the National Unity Government’s Defense Ministry, 44% of the country’s townships are now under the control of revolutionary forces, ethnic resistance organizations and people’s defense forces. Another 24% consists of active conflict zones or areas with mixed control. This leaves only 32% under the junta’s control — lower by some estimates.

As the junta continues to suffer heavy losses, the people’s revolution is expanding in territory, administration, governance and public services.

The building blocks of a bottom-up federal democracy are being developed on all fronts. Both in ethnic regions and central majority Burman areas, democratic resistance forces together with civil society — youth and women’s organizations — are drafting state constitutions, establishing and strengthening local governance institutions, developing policies on transitional justice, gender equality, minority rights, and women, peace and security (WPS), as well as providing essential services including health, education, children’s vaccines and counseling for survivors.

Drafting a political roadmap and planning transitional arrangements are already underway, guided by political aspirations outlined in the Federal Democracy Charter. The FDC was drafted and adopted by all stakeholders of the revolution, including the strike committees, civil disobedience movement, elected MPs, ethnic resistance organizations, and civil society in March 2021.

Following Malaysia’s historic Langkawi statement, ASEAN must unanimously decline to accept the military’s planned election, which at this point is an irrelevance.

Credible elections are impossible due to ongoing conflict and the junta’s lack of legality even under its own military-drafted 2008 constitution. During a sham census process rife with intimidation of civilians, the military could not even collect data from 56% of the townships and 19 million people. But a cessation in fighting is also not in itself an answer.

ASEAN and the international community must engage all of Myanmar’s legitimate stakeholders to understand why numerous ceasefires between various ethnic resistance movements and the Burmese military over many decades have repeatedly failed.

The reality is that the Burmese military is facing collapse. ASEAN must not therefore pressure Myanmar’s revolutionary forces and civil society into compromising with an illegitimate junta for a ceasefire that will enable it to draw breath.

Instead, ASEAN should exert maximum pressure to end the military’s terror campaign against the people, particularly its airstrikes — a point outlined in ASEAN’s Five-Point Consensus drawn up shortly after the disastrously misjudged coup of Min Aung Hlaing.

On this day, the junta’s terrible fourth anniversary, it is essential that ASEAN and the international community prioritize the people-led political transformation happening on the ground in Myanmar and support efforts to create an entirely new federal era.

Pressuring people to revert to a centralized power-sharing system controlled by the military — using the false rhetoric of nationwide representation that existed until 2021 — will only prolong suffering and obstruct progress toward achieving genuine peace and inclusivity.

The road to federalism is, of course, full of challenges at every turn. Much work remains to be done in developing people-centered governance, providing services to the populace, and dismantling the criminal institutions of the Burmese military.

The world must recognize that this fiercely fought revolution has created a unique opportunity for all communities of Myanmar to come together and build a future with a common vision to live in peaceful co-existence.

The younger generations in particular are resolute about building a new Myanmar free from military oppression once and for all. They have roared mightily and not been cowed by the junta’s violence, and they are determined that their generation will be the last to suffer military tyranny.

As ASEAN chair, there are two crucial steps Malaysia can take to support a people-centric political process that isolates the junta — steps already set out in the Civil Society Position Paper.

First, ASEAN must end all economic and military relations with the junta and engage formally with legitimate stakeholders — the National Unity Government and ethnic resistance organizations — to support efforts toward rebuilding Myanmar with genuine federal democratic governance.

Second, the U.N. General Assembly’s decision to hold an all-stakeholders high-level conference in 2025 to propose a time-bound plan for a sustainable solution to the Rohingya crisis, presents Malaysia — and thus ASEAN — the opportunity to finally address this humanitarian disaster as part of a comprehensive solution to Myanmar’s crisis. ASEAN for too long has neglected the situation of the Rohingya, and rectifying their suffering has not been properly viewed as part of the overall Myanmar solution. Malaysia must lead ASEAN in supporting this U.N. initiative. This is in the interests of the regional grouping and Malaysia itself, which has given sanctuary to over 100,000 Rohingya refugees.

In fact, it is in the best interests of Myanmar, ASEAN and the country’s other neighbors — Bangladesh, China and India — that this genuinely bottom-up people’s revolution succeeds. On Malaysia’s watch, ASEAN must have the political courage to seize this rare political momentum and stand on the right side of history.

Time is of the essence, and the time is now.

Khin Ohmar is an award-winning Burmese democracy and human rights activist and Chair of the Advisory Board of Progressive Voice.

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