Changing Conflict Dynamics in Myanmar: An Analysis of Armed Clashes and Military Airstrikes (Feb 2021 – Jun 2026)

Introduction

Myanmar’s conflict landscape has changed significantly since the military coup in February 2021. What began as localized resistance against military rule gradually evolved into a nationwide armed conflict involving junta forces, Resistance Forces, and ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) across multiple states and regions.

Over the past five years, the conflict has expanded geographically and intensified in scale. While Sagaing Region, Kachin State, and northern Shan State remained major conflict hotspots throughout much of the reporting period, other areas including Magway, Mandalay, Tanintharyi, and Rakhine experienced significant increases in armed clashes at different stages of the conflict. These developments demonstrate that conflict has become increasingly widespread rather than remaining concentrated in areas with long-standing armed conflict.

Conflict dynamics have also changed over time. Armed clashes increased steadily between 2021 and 2024 as fighting spread across multiple fronts. At the same time, the use of air and drone strikes became increasingly prominent, reflecting changes in the tactics employed by different conflict actors. Together, these developments illustrate how both the intensity and the nature of Myanmar’s armed conflict have evolved since the coup.

This report examines conflict trends in Myanmar between 2021 and 2026 through an analysis of armed clashes and military airstrikes. Based on conflict event data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), the report examines changes over time and across different states and regions to identify major shifts in conflict dynamics and the increasing role of air power. The findings provide an evidence-based overview of how Myanmar’s conflict has evolved since the 2021 military coup.

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