Ballots Without Choice: Electoral Dynamics in Ethnic Areas of Myanmar

Executive Summary

The junta-orchestrated 2025 election was conducted within a highly constrained political and territorial environment, producing an outcome that overwhelmingly favored the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) while significantly limiting meaningful political competition. Although 57 political parties contested the election—including 29 ethnic-affiliated parties, of which 23 secured seats—electoral results were heavily skewed. Ethnic parties collectively won 155 out of 1,025 seats (15.12 percent), whereas the USDP secured approximately 739 seats (72.10 percent), dominating both legislative chambers. Structural factors such as advance voting—where the USDP derived over 40 percent of its votes in multiple constituencies—along with 31 uncontested seats (28 won by the USDP), further consolidated this dominance. These patterns indicate that the electoral framework functioned less as a competitive process and more as a controlled mechanism reinforcing military-aligned political authority.

A defining feature of the election was the sharp contraction of the electorate. The number of eligible voters declined from approximately 37–38 million in 2020 to 24.13 million in 2025, excluding more than 13 million people—around 35 percent of the previous electorate—due to displacement, territorial instability, and administrative restrictions. This exclusion was particularly severe in ethnic states, where large portions of territory were unable to participate. For example, only two out of nine townships in Chin State and three out of 17 in Rakhine State held elections, often with further exclusions at the ward and village levels. Nationwide, the military maintained full control in only 257 out of 350 townships (approximately 52 percent), while 91 towns had been captured by resistance forces since the 2021 coup. These conditions reflect not isolated disruptions but a broader fragmentation of territorial authority that fundamentally constrained the scope and inclusiveness of the electoral process.

The pre-election environment further limited political pluralism through restrictive legal frameworks and systematic suppression of opposition. The Political Parties Registration Law imposed stringent requirements that led to the dissolution of 40 parties in March 2023, including major actors such as the National League for Democracy (NLD) and several prominent ethnic parties. Additional legal measures criminalized opposition activities, with over 400 individuals charged under election-related provisions by early 2026. As a result, the electoral landscape was reshaped prior to polling, with many key parties absent either due to forced dissolution or deliberate boycott. Combined with limited campaign space, weak voter education, and widespread insecurity, these constraints reduced both participation and competitiveness.

Voter turnout declined to approximately 54 percent—the lowest since 1990—reflecting low public confidence, displacement, and restricted access to polling. In many ethnic areas, participation was minimal, campaign activities were largely absent, and voters often lacked basic information about the election. Reports of coercion, particularly involving government employees, and the decisive role of opaque advance voting procedures further undermined the credibility of the process. Despite these constraints, voting patterns in some ethnic areas demonstrated localized resistance, with communities supporting ethnic-affiliated parties as alternatives to the USDP, often described as choosing the “lesser evil.”

Post-election dynamics indicate a high likelihood of continued military dominance. Many incumbent chief ministers and senior officials contested and won seats under the USDP, positioning themselves to retain power. The military leadership, including Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, remains central to government formation, with expectations that key positions will be filled by existing military or junta-affiliated figures. This continuity suggests that the election serves primarily to repackage existing power structures under a nominally civilian framework.

Overall, the 2025 election is characterized by systemic exclusion, limited territorial reach, constrained political competition, and procedural irregularities. While formally conducted, the process lacks substantive inclusiveness and credibility. The resulting government faces a significant legitimacy deficit, as the election appears to have been structured to consolidate military authority rather than reflect the will of Myanmar’s population.

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