Conflict Data Focus – Issue 2nd

Analysis and Key Insights

1. Heavy Military Casualties: The most significant finding is the extremely high casualty rate suffered by the military junta compared to resistance forces. The military junta forces sustained over 11 times more fatalities than the PDF and its allies. This lopsided ratio (872 junta casualties to 127 PDF casualties) suggests that the guerrilla tactics employed by resistance forces—such as ambushes, targeted attacks on convoys, and raids on outposts— are proving highly effective and are inflicting a severe toll on military manpower.

2. Central Myanmar Remains the Epicenter of Heavy Fighting: The regions of Bago, Magway, and Sagaing stand out as the deadliest zones for military junta forces. Bago Region alone accounts for 155 junta deaths. Magway Region saw 111 junta deaths and 106 injuries, making it the region with the highest total military casualties (217). Together, Bago, Magway, and Sagaing represent over 54% of all junta deaths, confirming that the conflict’s center of gravity lies within central Myanmar.

3. High-Stakes Clashes in Mandalay: While PDF casualties were relatively low in many regions, Mandalay Region shows a different pattern, with 22 PDF deaths recorded. This is the highest number of resistance fatalities in any single region. The Hidden Cost for Civilians: The recorded 10 civilian deaths and 16 injuries, while tragic, likely underrepresent the true civilian suffering. This data specifically tracks casualties from direct armed clashes. It does not include those killed or injured by artillery shelling, airstrikes, landmines, or extrajudicial killings that often occur in retaliation or outside of a direct firefight. The civilian casualties noted in Sagaing and Magway, two of the most intense conflict zones, are a small but grim indicator of the wider danger faced by non-combatants.

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