Conflicting claims: An analysis of the Tabayin school airstrike

Executive summary

After the March 2025 earthquake in Myanmar, the ongoing conflict between Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and the State Administration Council (SAC) continues to inflict civilian casualties and infrastructure damage across the country.

On 12 May 2025, reports emerged of an airstrike hitting a school in Oe Htein Kwin (North) (အိုးထိမ်းကွင်း (မြောက်), Tabayin (ဒီပဲယင်းမြို့နယ်) township, Sagaing Region [22.65184975, 95.20942688]. Khit Thit News [GRAPHIC] initially reported “up to 50 casualties” but later revised these figures to 22 deaths, of which 20 were children. Two days later, a local administration office updated the death toll to 24, with 102 injured.

These accounts were categorically denied by SAC-aligned sources. including MRTV, the Global New Light of Myanmar and other pro-SAC accounts (source). The denials of the event have taken several forms, including:

1. Disputing the reported death toll – Some pro-SAC sources reject the claim that 50 people were killed
2. Denying that an airstrike occurred at all
3. Shifting blame to the opposition forces – Certain sources claim that the incident was the result of a drone strike carried out by the People’s Defence Force (PDF)
4. Framing the strike as justified, in some cases, it has been implied that the school was being used for bomb-making, thus suggesting the attack targeted a legitimate military objective.

Myanmar Witness analysed User Generated Content (UGC) showing between 11 and 16 bodies at the scene, although the status of these individuals (dead or injured) is, in most cases, undetermined. Additionally, multiple angles of the incident area were geolocated, confirming the event’s occurrence. The date of the event is currently assessed as likely due to Sentinel footage, timestamps in the imagery, and the apparent absence of UGC prior to the event.

While available UGC does not definitively identify the ordnance used in the incident, it is reasonably consistent with other remnants of aerial explosives seen. Alongside this, the structural damage and the victims’ injuries were consistent with airstrikes. Additionally, the presence of apparent EAO-related outfits among bystanders in some footage suggests that the PDF forces were unlikely to have been responsible for the strike.

Regarding claims that the school was used for bomb-making, according to pro-SAC accounts, imagery of the alleged production site does not match any UGC of the struck school, making this claim highly unlikely. Furthermore, the original TikTok video has also been removed or hidden without explanation.  Therefore, the denials and alternative narratives prompted by MRTV and other pro-SAC sources appear to be spreading disinformation around this incident.

Myanmar Witness will continue to investigate this event and related incidents in the region.

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