In Myanmar, a heartless junta deepens earthquake despair with ‘collective punishment’

As quake survivors dig through the rubble for loved ones with their bare hands, the military bombs villages and seeks diplomatic openings

In the heartbreak of disaster, Myanmar‘s hated junta has been handed a lifeline.

As stunned, bloodied survivors sift through the rubble of the country’s deadliest earthquake in decades, bracing for even darker days ahead, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing is seizing the opportunity – to secure his grip on power and manoeuvre back into the diplomatic fold.

Shunned internationally in the wake of his 2021 coup, the general was even ostracised by the typically taciturn Association of Southeast Asian Nations bloc, which banned him from its summits for failing to follow an agreed peace plan.

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Before the devastating 7.7-magnitude quake on March 28, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s forces were losing ground in a civil war triggered by the coup, relying on forced conscription and air strikes as rebel groups edged closer to the military’s heartlands.

Now, with his enemies preoccupied by the overwhelming humanitarian crisis, the junta chief has a momentary reprieve from war – and he is using it to rebrand himself as the stoic leader of a nation in need.

The timing of the once-in-a-century quake could not have been more fortuitous for a regime that had been floundering. The epicentre, Sagaing, is both a rebel stronghold and the site of brutal scorched-earth campaigns by the junta’s military. Villages there were razed, civilians slaughtered and pro-democracy fighters pushed underground.

The junta’s enemies have since laid down their arms to address the aftermath of a disaster that has killed more than 3,000 people – though the true toll is likely far higher.

Hundreds of collapsed buildings, pagodas and mosques are feared to contain the bodies of thousands more victims, with the risk to life growing as survivors’ needs become ever more pressing.

“This disaster gives the junta its greatest opportunity to advance its political agenda,” said Khin Ohmar, a pro-democracy activist from human rights group Progressive Voice Myanmar. “It happened when the junta was becoming so weak that it could only rely on aerial bombings because it doesn’t control the land.”

Assistance denied

Sagaing had been at the heart of the resistance to Myanmar’s coup leaders.

Rebel forces based in the region gnawed into the key central heartlands of Mandalay and Sagaing – territory vital to the junta’s control. But now, with entire towns turned to rubble, observers say the junta has slowed aid deliveries to these devastated areas as it seeks to punish those communities that have risen against it.

In the immediate aftermath of the quake, the junta continued bombing rebel targets, including more than a dozen strikes in Sagaing. A ceasefire was only declared days later on Wednesday, after a junta air strike accidentally hit a Chinese Red Cross rescue team. Yet even now, relief efforts remain convoluted as reports persist of continued air strikes.

“Where are the helicopters, where is the heavy machinery? Whatever they have in the military camps, nothing has come out [to help the civilian population],” Khin Ohmar said.

“It is a form of collective punishment … they know which township is against them and where and how many people live there.”

Meanwhile, unverified footage has emerged of attack helicopters firing on rebel positions in neighbouring Chin state, exposing a military exploiting a disaster to weaken its enemies.

For the people of Sagaing and Mandalay, the quake has made survival even more of a daily struggle. Residents who spoke to This Week in Asia described scenes of despair.

Soldiers stand idly by at the edges of collapsed buildings, without the orders or capacity to help, leaving relatives to dig with their bare hands through rubble that reeks of death in search of their loved ones. Whole families, terrified of aftershocks, have been forced to sleep outdoors with monsoon rains fast approaching. Water, food and medicine – even snake antivenom – are all in scant supply.

“Thousands are buried or missing. People are living next to piles of rubble where their loved ones are, we can’t just give up on hoping they are alive,” Meredith Bunn, founder of aid group Skills for Humanity, told This Week in Asia from Sagaing on Friday.

She said regime soldiers were blocking aid and waving away volunteers – or making it difficult for them to move around freely in Sagaing, where a nightly curfew is now in place.

“Sagaing is a key strategic area, so as it seeks to get full control back, the junta is happy there are fewer civilians against them. The weaker the people are, the better it is for them … This is what the junta does and has been doing for decades.”

The United Nations, which sent its top disaster officials to the country this weekend, says more than 9 million people have been affected by the earthquake.

This is on top of the 20 million people in Myanmar who were already in need of humanitarian assistance after four years of conflict. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned on Thursday that the quake had “supercharged the suffering”.

“Myanmar today is the scene of utter devastation and desperation,” he said. “I appeal for rapid, safe, sustained and unimpeded humanitarian access to reach those most in need across the country.”

Volunteers and foreign rescue teams face long delays at the web of military checkpoints dotted across the country. Journalists are denied entry as the junta’s isolationist tendencies kick in – and aid is slowly trickling into Sagaing, but days late.

Relief efforts have instead coalesced around Naypyidaw, the junta’s remote capital, where the military elite, their families and civil servants live. It was also hit hard by the quake, but its operational airport has become a hub for international aid, with the junta boasting that 49 international flights had arrived by midweek, bringing 2,000 rescue personnel and more than 700 tonnes (689 tons) of relief.

Outside Naypyidaw, the military’s history of weaponising aid looms large. In the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which killed an estimated 100,000 people, accusations of withheld aid by the military government swirled. Similar allegations have resurfaced since, including after Cyclone Mocha battered Rakhine state in 2023.

The National Unity Government (NUG), Myanmar’s democratically elected government-in-exile, has warned that aid received by the junta will be siphoned off for military use. Yet the generals remain the gatekeeper of airports and harbours, forcing the international community to engage with Min Aung Hlaing.

“We fully understand the necessity of communication with him,” NUG spokesman Nay Phone Latt told This Week in Asia.

“But Min Aung Hlaing doesn’t have the ability to govern our country. He has no goodwill for our people. The only thing he focuses on is the maintenance of his power.”

A junta reborn?

The quake has offered Min Aung Hlaing not only a domestic reprieve but also a diplomatic opportunity.

On Thursday, the junta chief – who is wanted by the International Criminal Court – arrived in Bangkok to attend the BIMSTEC regional summit. Carrying a ceasefire pledge and portraying himself as a leader open to international cooperation, Min Aung Hlaing was attempting to claw back legitimacy on the world stage.

He was greeted with a banner slung over a bridge near the five-star hotel hosting the summit reading: “We do not welcome murderer Min Aung Hlaing”.

The general held talks with the leaders of Thailand, India and Bangladesh and others at the summit, state mouthpiece Global New Light of Myanmar said, trumpeting his attendance and “the potential for cooperation with the international community to carry out rescue and rehabilitation measures”. On Saturday, the foreign ministers of Thailand and Malaysia said they planned to visit quake-hit Myanmar.

“This plays to Min Aung Hlaing’s advantage,” Khin Ohmar said. “And there will be more opportunities for him if Asean and the international community fall into his trap.”

She urged donors to ensure aid reaches the people, not the junta, as activists called for the opening of a humanitarian corridor, stretching from India’s western border to Thailand’s east.

“Make sure your aid is not manipulated, exploited and misused by the junta. Make sure it goes fairly and squarely to the people,” she said.

Myanmar’s military rulers have announced a US$250 million allocation for quake relief and recovery, though questions remain over where the funds will come from and who will oversee their spending. Many fear this money will be misused to reward loyalists or punish dissenting regions.

The NUG has offered to support relief efforts, but its requests for reassurances that its personnel would be given safe passage through junta-controlled checkpoints “have not been answered”, Nay Phone Latt told This Week in Asia.

Meanwhile, reports have emerged of young men of fighting age, travelling to Mandalay to help earthquake victims, being detained or coerced into joining the military. Even amid a natural disaster, the enmity of war persists, overshadowing humanitarian needs.

A spokesman for the “96 Soldiers Battalion” – one of hundreds of anti-junta People’s Defence Forces – told This Week in Asia that the military had continued to focus on crushing dissent despite the tragedy.

“While the junta showcases rescue efforts in the city to maintain its international image, it continues to bomb villages,” said Phoo, who uses only one name, referring to an air strike on the village of Let Pan Hla, just outside Mandalay city.

At the same time, underground resistance groups in Mandalay have been quietly aiding relief efforts. Their work comes at great risk, however. One member was arrested on the second day after the earthquake, Phoo said. The rest fled.

Such responses are emblematic of a junta that always “prioritises security over relief for the people”, she said.

‘Running on empty’

Adding to the challenges, international aid has been stifled by a global humanitarian system under immense strain. The Myanmar earthquake was the first major natural disaster to occur since the United States, until recently the world’s largest donor nation, significantly scaled back its relief operations.

Around the time of the quake, Donald Trump‘s White House confirmed the sacking of nearly all staff from the USAID relief agency, following deep cuts to state spending.

In the vacuum left by the diminished US presence, other nations have stepped in. China has emerged as a leading donor, dispatching well-equipped disaster response teams and pledging an initial US$13 million in aid.

The irony is palpable. China, long seen as one of the junta’s sole supporters, is now being lauded for its swift and visible response. By contrast, the US has contributed just US$2 million in aid and dispatched only three USAID experts to Myanmar, with reports suggesting that even these efforts have been held up by the junta’s refusal to issue visas.

Vietnamese and Malaysian teams have also arrived on the ground, earning gratitude from locals. Images showing residents thanking and feeding these rescuers have gone viral.

But the absence of robust American involvement is being acutely felt. “The global humanitarian system is running on empty,” Richard Horsey, a Myanmar expert at the International Crisis Group think tank, wrote in a recent editorial. USAID “was the largest provider of life-saving assistance in Myanmar and globally,” he said.

The earthquake struck a country already crippled by conflict and threadbare infrastructure. Swathes of Myanmar are controlled by pro-democracy rebels and ethnic armed groups, making aid distribution and recovery efforts even more complex, experts warn.

The NUG has urged international donors to work directly with anti-junta factions where possible, cautioning that the junta’s overstretched, underfunded military is likely to divert aid intended for civilians to bolster its own forces.

Min Aung Hlaing now faces the immense challenge of managing the aftermath of one of Myanmar’s worst crises – a disaster that struck even military strongholds hard.

“As a deeply superstitious person himself, he is aware that many in his inner circle – and in much of the country – may interpret the disaster as a kind of karmic retribution for the coup and the violence his regime has subsequently unleashed on the people of Myanmar,” Horsey said.

For ordinary people like Myo from Mandalay the junta’s response has only deepened their despair.

“My family has to sleep on the road,” the 35-year-old told This Week in Asia. “The military won’t let rescue teams into the city.”

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