Navigating Change: Crisis and Crossroads in the Rakhine State Context

The purpose of this report is to assess the implications of the post-October 2016 crisis in northern Rakhine. The analysis and recommendations presented below complement and build upon CDA’s May 2016 report, Reshaping Engagement: Perspectives on Conflict Sensitivity in Rakhine State.

This report will:

• Analyze changes to key conflict factors and relationships since October 2016;
• Outline the impacts of these changes on local and international implementing agencies, international donors, diplomatic and human rights advocacy bodies – and the efforts made by these actors to navigate the changed context;
• Propose concrete measures to facilitate conflict sensitive engagement in the changed context.

The current situation is fluid, characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. As such, this report seeks to narrowly assess the consequences of the crisis to date, both on dynamics in Rakhine State and the actors engaged in the context. It is intended as a capturing of the conflict as it stands presently – at a crossroads.